FREE Belmont Stakes Picks by The Jockey’s Edge
148th running, June 11, 2016
Here are the 148th running of the Belmont Stakes’ FREE picks for this Saturday, June 11, 2016.
The Jockey’s Edge FREE Belmont Stakes Picks
A field of 13 goes to the post. On paper, it looks as if Exaggerator can’t be beat, but that’s why the race must be run, and every man, woman, and child has an opinion about it. There are more than plenty of under-contenders/spoilers in this field ready to pounce on any weakness Exaggerator may show. A workout on Monday garnered mixed reviews and from what I witnessed, Exaggerator may have reached his upper limit. Cruising around the turn on the outside lead coming into the stretch, he carried on the whole length of the stretch on that lead, not switching to the inside lead until well into the clubhouse turn ready to pull up. This may mean he is protecting himself, as horses are taught in kindergarten to change leads going into and out of the turns. We shall see. Then again, he far outclasses any others in here and may win on his class and heart alone.
I would use Exaggerator and Suddenbreakingnews with all others for the trifecta bet. The best of the rest of the field is evenly matched and any one of them could jump up for show honors.
11, 4, 5, 3
Win: 11 Exaggerator
Place: 4 Suddenbreakingnews
Show: 5 Stradivari
4th: 3 Cherry Wine
5th: 2 Destin
Analysis, see below.
The Jockey’s Edge is infinitely grateful to Brisnet.com for generously supplying us with a copy of the past performance of all racers in the 148th running of the Belmont Stakes, 2016!
|Horse and Post Position||Fractional Odds|
|Cherry Wine #3||8/1|
|Brody’s Cause #12||14/1|
|Governor Malibu #1||14/1|
|Seeking the Soul #7||40/1|
|Forever d’Oro #8||40/1|
|Trojan Nation #9||40/1|
#1 Governor Malibu – The sole New York bred in the race, with impeccable breeding nonetheless. Made up a decent amount of ground in his last race and is another one who could surprise in here, given a good trip. May not be up to the competition in the Belmont Stakes, but if the others falter, he could be around to pick up a chunk of the purse. Use sparingly, but keep in mind.
#2 Destin – Did not seem to like the crowded going in the Derby. Will appreciate the larger oval here with less horses in the race. Wondering if he can get the 1 1/2 miles of the Belmont. Perfect Jockey/Trainer combo. Could sit behind the phony speed in here and wind up in the money. Then again, can he get the distance, even with his royal breeding? Looks as if he was tailing off in the Derby.
#3 Cherry Wine- Got very lucky in the Preakness to just nose out Nyquist for place honors. Looks like a horse who is getting better as time goes on and is a game competitor. Use him in trifectas with Exaggerator and Suddenbreakingnews.
#4 Suddenbreakingnews – Made up an impressive amount of ground in the Derby, after encountering trouble earlier in the race. Gets a jockey change to Mike Smith, who knows how to win this race, having won it twice before and is brilliant coming off the pace, or being right on it. Can’t go wrong with Mike Smith aboard.
#5 Stradivari- A horse who is improving with every race. Will definitely be a contender for the top three places. Lost considerable ground in the Preakness and was rank at the beginning. With that experience and the added distance, he could steal the race right out from under Exaggerator if he is that sharp and settles on the backside first behind the speedsters in here.
#6 Gettysburg-The obvious speed of the race sent out to make an honest pace for his stablemate, Creator. May just set the race up for Exaggerator anyway. No way can Creator overtake Exaggerator, no matter how many rabbits are put in the race.
#7 Seeking the Soul- Just broke his maiden all out at Churchill by a skinny neck. At this time of year, the good horses have already graduated from the maiden ranks, so the adage fits that, “He didn’t beat nobody.” He will be in the first wave of attackers against Exaggerator around the first turn, but will drop to the back when the real question is asked.
#8 Forever d’Oro- Another recent maiden graduate who fits the, “He didn’t beat nobody,” bill. Stumbling at the start does not help his cause, as this implies not paying attention, or worse, not ready to break because he’s really thinking he’d rather not. But the owner gets a free table in the big-boy room and a free meal, so why not run? And who knows, maybe the field will scratch down to a more manageable number and he will get a nice check just for showing up!
#9 Trojan Nation – Ran the race of his life in the Wood Memorial, then had trouble at the start of the Derby. Still a maiden and would be a huge surprise to win, place, or show in here. Didn’t make up ground in the Derby, just happened to pass a few tired ones in the way. Even if he runs another big one, it won’t be enough to get close to making an impact on those in here.
#10 Lani- Has been working extra hard getting himself ready for this longer distance with works coming in 3 and 4 days apart. Can he hold together for this grueling distance, against the best in the country? He made up a respectable amount of ground in the Preakness, so maybe his jockey is getting the timing down of how the races are run in this country. We’ll see if he stays closer to the front runners this time out. Could get a piece of it if he doesn’t fall too far behind and give himself too much work to do catching up at the end. Will he return to Japan after this race?
#11 Exaggerator- The class of the race and looks like he can’t be beat, or shouldn’t be beat. All jockeys will be actively riding against him, knowing where he is at all times and trying to block his strategy without interfering with their own. Has a big bulls-eye on his silks. Had an eventful workout on Monday, coming out of the turn on the outside lead and staying on it until into the clubhouse turn. May be protecting himself. Could be open for a defeat in here. Proceed with caution. Do not use him across with board as the winner in all bets. To me, he is ripe for defeat, after having run such a grueling campaign the last two months. Can his trainer hold him together for one last massive effort? He’s got to be tired and weary from all that activity so early in his career. He is clearly not an American Pharoah super-horse type, albeit he is an above average kind. Then again, he so far outclasses the rest in here, he may just win on that alone.
#12 Brody’s Cause-Made up considerable ground in the Derby, especially after breaking from post 19. Beat Exaggerator way back in October at Keeneland, but has not improved much since that race. Could be closing for a piece of the action, along with the rest of the field if Exaggerator falters.
#13 Creator- Ran a spectacular race in the Arkansas Derby, then a clunker in the Derby. Could have just been his post position there and getting pumped hard with all those horses around him. Can sit closer to the pace if need be. Appeared to be on the upswing before the Derby, so using him in the exotics would be a good idea.